Our apologies to the English majors for the title. Yes, very grammatically painful. And yes, we still kept it because if you’ve been reading the news lately, you’ve probably seen the headlines: the U.S. added ~911,00 fewer jobs over the 12 months ending in March than previously reported. This is the biggest revision as a share of jobs “lost” since 2009 (it’s never good when you are referencing that time period).
A quick aside, while the Federal Reserve is not an organization that receives a lot of empathy, especially lately, it’s hard not to feel for them. Imagine being tasked with making forward-looking policy decisions for the entire economy using backwards-looking data that might turn out to be wrong six months later.
The “good” news? This revision actually lines up with what we’ve been seeing on the ground in our work with clients and candidates. (We would unabashedly recommend that those at the Federal Reserve add this newsletter to their reading list for a more forward-looking perspective). We’ve been writing over the last few months about low labor turnover: few separations, less job switching, more “job hugging”. And entry-level unemployment, especially for those with college degrees, has increased markedly recently. (Gad Levanon of The Burning Glass Institute had a great analysis on that trend).
With this said, unemployment is still very low (especially in our part of Wisconsin and Northern Illinois) and the labor story is nuanced. Most people still have jobs. Looking for experienced skilled trades talent? Good luck (or call Julie Bear).
So what’s our perspective on what this means for you?
Well, if you’ve read this far, you’re probably a Hiring Happens regular (thank you!), and you have hopefully already been thinking about some of these trends. But here is what we’d offer:
- Focus on conversion in your recruitment pipeline. When labor turnover and unemployment are low, there are simply fewer candidates entering the funnel. If you’ve got a good one in process, work hard to get them across the finish line with speed.
- Don’t ignore retention. Low turnover is great until a great employee leaves. With fewer movers in the market, backfilling takes longer and costs more.
- Build flexibility. Contract or temporary talent gives you an option to scale without locking yourself in. In a softening market, that optionality can be the difference between reacting and getting ahead.
It’s nice to see the official data finally catch up to what we’ve been writing about. For now, we’ll continue with our current title, because hiring still is happens(ing), even if the BLS has to rewrite their story.
Until next time,
Your Spherion South Central WI & Northern IL team